Monday, February 12, 2007

Uranium facts

Uranium is in a bull market for the next 10-15 years, maybe even longer. Uranium is used by nuclear power plants to generate electricity. Uranium price has doubled in 2006 to $75 right now, many believe it will break $100 this year. Let's check the economics behind uranium and profit from it.
  1. Operating Plants
    Currently, there are 103 commercial nuclear power plants producing electricity in the United States. They are, on average, 24 years old, and are licensed to operate for 40 years with an option to renew for an additional 20.
    As of January 2007, 30 countries worldwide were operating 435 nuclear plants for electricity generation. Twenty-nine new nuclear plants were under construction in 12 countries.
  2. Electricity Production
    Today, nuclear power plants—the second largest source of electricity in the United States—supply about 20 percent of the nation's electricity each year.
    In 2005, U.S. nuclear plants generated 782 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity. In 2004, they produced 788 billion kilowatt-hours.
    Nuclear power plants provided some 16 percent of the world's electricity production in 2005. In total, 16 countries relied on nuclear energy to supply at least one-quarter of their total electricity.
  3. Economic Performance
    The average electricity production cost in 2005 for nuclear energy was 1.72 cents per kilowatt-hour, for coal-fired plants 2.21 cents / kWh, for oil 8.09 cents / kWh, and for natural gas 7.51 cents / kWh.
    To produce one Watt of electricity, it takes 1.0 lbs. of coal/kWh from coal plants using steam turbines, 0.48 lbs. of natural gas from natural gas using steam turbines, 0.37 lbs. of natural gas/kWh using combined cycle technology, 0.58 lbs. of Heavy Oil/kWh using steam turbines, and .0000008 lbs. of Uranium enriched at 4% U235 and 96% U238 for use in a commercial nuclear reactor.
    A 100 watt light bulb that ran continuously for an entire year would consume 876 kWh. Producing the necessary electricity would require 876 lbs. of coal, 377-324 lbs. of natural gas, 508 lbs. of oil, or 0.0007 lbs. of Uranium enriched to 4% for use in a commercial nuclear reactor.
  4. Environmental Protection--global warming.
    Of all energy sources, nuclear energy has perhaps the lowest impact on the environment.
    Nuclear energy is the world's largest source of emission-free energy. Nuclear power plants produce no controlled air pollutants, such as sulfur and particulates, or greenhouse gases. The use of nuclear energy in place of other energy sources helps to keep the air clean, preserve the Earth's climate, avoid ground-level ozone formation and prevent acid rain.
    In 2005, U.S. nuclear power plants prevented 3.32 million tons of sulfur dioxide, 1.05 million tons of nitrogen oxide, and 681.9 million metric tons of carbon dioxide from entering the earth’s atmosphere.
  5. Industrial Safety
    Even if you lived right next door to a nuclear power plant, you would still receive less radiation each year than you would receive in just one round-trip flight from New York to Los Angeles.
    You would have to live near a nuclear power plant for over 2,000 years to get the same amount of radiation exposure that you get from a single diagnostic medical x-ray.
  6. Political supports
    In the early days of my life in Congress, I was an opponent of nuclear energy because of questions on how to dispose of the waste. … The technology has changed, and I bring a more open mind to that subject now because I think we should look at this technology, and compare it to the alternatives. —House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.)
    House Committee on Science and Technology Hearing
    Feb. 8, 2007
  7. “If … one of our objectives is to be serious about dealing with the environment, there’s no cleaner source of energy than nuclear power. And so we’re spending money and research to make sure that the next-generation power plant is safe. But also we’re spending money, interestingly enough, on how to process spent fuels better. And believe it or not, actually, we’re beginning to permit nuclear power plants here in America. And that’s going to be good for your children. It’s going to make us less dependent on natural gas from overseas, and it’s going to make us better stewards of the environment.”
    —President Bush
    Wilmington, Del.
    Jan. 24, 2007
  8. In summary, I think uranium is in high demand not only in developed countries like U.S. and France (78.5% of its electricity is from nuclear energy), but also in developing countries like China and India, which relies on nuclear energy for its future.
  9. Many believe uranium will hits $200/lb within 3 years and becomes the most profitable commodity for the next decades.

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