Saturday, February 17, 2007

Uranium stock comparison

  1. CCJ's uranium reserve is the largest among pure uranium stocks. It has over 805Mlb.
  2. EMU has 260M lbs.
  3. FRG has 58M lbs, plus 32M lbs of indicated, which it owns 47%.
  4. URZ has 13M lbs, up to 26 M lbs.

Based on current Uranium of $75 per lb and cost of $30 per lb, from uranium only, I calculated the worth of the uranium reserves:

  1. CCJ: 36.2B.
  2. EMU: 11.7B.
  3. FRG: 1.9B. (Factor in 47% FRG owns).
  4. URZ: 585M to 1.2B.

Market cap of these companies:

  1. CCJ: 12B.
  2. EMU: 800M.
  3. FRG: 740M.
  4. URZ: 130M.

Of course, I have not consider the gold reserves FRG has, and CCJ's reserves have two underground reserves, which don't use ISR method to recover and the cost may be lower. But one of the underground reserves is Cigar Lake, which is flooded and won't bring it online until 2008 or even 2009. BTW, Cigar Lake can produce 24% of world annual demand once it's fully operational, this is how big the impact it has on CCJ and rest of the junior uranium stocks.

Other factors, such as permit, local government application process, the quality of the reserves, etc, are not considered in my calculation.

But from valuation perspective, EMU has the best value, URZ is second, CCJ third.

If uranium, as experts predicted to reach to $200 in 3 years, then all these companies can easily triple their stock price.

Once uranium becomes cover story on Times, then it's time to sell. Maybe a few years away.

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